Archive for the ‘Technicals’ Category

Higher Level Selling is Expected

Monday, August 30th, 2010

The undertone was weak on Friday and nifty closed on a negative note at 5408, a fall of 69 to its previous close.

As nifty has breached the 5450 level on closing basis, further selling is expected in today’s trading, a break below 5400 can drag nifty to 5370 and then 5325 levels and on the higher side a break above 5450 level can take the nifty to 5510 level, Nifty to range in the range 5370 to 5470 levels, either side break to give a new direction the market.

Overall the trend looks bullish in the near term due to FII inflow and good liquidity in the system, hence we suggest traders to remain long with a stop loss of 5370 and investor can take the corrections from time to time as a buying opportunity in blue chips and as well as undervalued mid cap stocks.

In today’s trading traders are advised to be cautious with a positive bias as lower level buying is expected.

On global cues market to open on flatt note and to trade with positive bias in the morning session thereafter can come under selling pressure in the second session.

Nifty to have support at 5400/5370/5350 and resistance at 5425/5450/5470 for the day.

This post is shared on the moneyvidya blog by Antony Joseph Rajendran. please visit http://www.investorinfo.in/ to see Antony’s personal blog/website

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Nifty Analysis

Monday, August 30th, 2010

Really short post this week -  Equities did an about turn this week after breaking the previous highs -  however - I am not extremely comfortable with this sell-off and there could be a swift and sharp test to the upside in offing. The level to watch is the low of 2nd October, 2010 - 5351 and in case of a bounce - the level where we could face resistance is 5490. More later.

This post is shared on the moneyvidya blog by Ashish. Please visit http://marketsindia.blogspot.com/ to see Ashish’s personal blog/website.

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Nifty Analysis

Monday, August 23rd, 2010

The recent divergence in Nifty  failed to deliver  - with Nifty closing near fresh 52-week highs. Indian markets have continued to march upward despite a  weakening of sentiment across major European and American equity indices -  which makes it even harder to predict the short term directional  moves. In Nifty and Sensex - there are various technical parameters which indicate the short-term strength to be overblown - however -  with the Index at fresh 52-week high, we cannot discount the possibility of a sharp spike higher purely due to weak shorts stopping out in a rising market. There is some chance that Nifty might spike to 5700-5750 areas, however -  it’s not a high probability setup. Thus, for the time being I think it is best for risk averse traders to remain on the sidelines

This post is shared on the moneyvidya blog by Ashish, please visit http://marketsindia.blogspot.com/ to see Ashishs’ personal blog.

MoneyVidya.com is a stock picking community where you can follow top Indian Investors, Traders and Stock Market Enthusiasts. Visit MoneyVidya.com and join the community today

Nifty can test higher levels

Thursday, August 19th, 2010

Yesterday market opened flat and in the initial trade touched a low of 5416 then gradually picked up the momentum in the second session and touched a high of 5487 and closed on a strong note at 5479, a rise of 65 points from its previous close.
 
Today the undertone is slightly bullish and nifty can try to test the 5515 levels for this to happen nifty has to trade above 5490 levels and on the other hand a break below 5450 levels can drag the nifty to 5425 levels, nifty to trade in the range 5450 to 5515 for the day, either side break to give a new direction to nifty for the day.
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Traders are suggested to be cautious and book profits on gains and re-enter at support level, today Fertilizer and Shipping stocks to be in the limelight with a positive bias and on the other side Banking and Metal can come under selling pressure.

On mixed global cues market to open slightly on the higher side, overall the undertone for the day is slightly bullish and can test higher levels.

Nifty to have support at 5460/5440/5425 and resistance at 5490/5500/5515 levels for the day.

This post is shared on the moneyvidya blog by Antony Joseph Rajendran, Please visit www.investorinfo.in , to see Antonys’ personal blog/website

MoneyVidya.com is a stock picking community where you can follow top Indian Investors, Traders and Stock Market Enthusiasts. Visit MoneyVidya.com and join the community today

Range bound session with positive bias

Wednesday, August 18th, 2010

Yesterday market opened flat and traded on a firm note in the first hour and touched a high of 5443 and thereafter due to selling pressure at higher levels, nifty touched a low of 5408 level in the mid session and managed to recover to close on a flat note with a fall of 4 points from its previous close.

Another range bound trading is expected with a positive bias for the day and nifty to trade in the range of 5390 to 5440 levels, either side break the give new direction to the market for the day.

Traders are suggested to be cautious and book profits on gains and re-enter at support level.

Pharma and Mid cap PSU banks to be in the lime light with positive bias and on the other side IT and Metals to be under selling pressure.

On mixed global cues market to open slightly on the higher side, if crosses above 5425 level then can test 5440 level and above that can test 5470 levels, On the other side a break below 5405 levels can drag the nifty to 5390 and then 5370 levels for the day.

Nifty to have support at 5405/5490/5370 and resistance at 5425/5440/5470 levels for the day.

This post was shared on the moneyvidya blog by Antony Joseph Rajendran, Please visit www.investorinfo.in , to see Antonys’ personal blog/website

MoneyVidya.com is a stock picking community where you can follow top Indian Investors, Traders and Stock Market Enthusiasts. Visit MoneyVidya.com and join the community today

Nifty Under Selling Pressure

Wednesday, August 11th, 2010

Yesterday market opened flattish and was unable to sustain at higher levels, touches a high of 5491 in the morning session and due to the sluggishness in the Asian market our market too came under selling pressure in the second session and touched a low of 5445 and closed at 5460, a fall of 27 points from its previous close.

Nifty to trade in the range 5425 to 5490 levels, either side break to give a new direction to the market.

On weak global cues maker to open on sluggish note and expected to be under selling pressure in the morning session, however  if holds above 5450 levels then can test 5490 on intraday basis and on the other side a break below 5425 to drag the nifty to the extent of 5400.

Traders are advised to trade in small lots and be cautious, buy on dips and sell on rise will be the best strategy.

Mid cap and small cap to come under selling pressure for the next few trading session however stock specific activity can be seen in select stocks.

Nifty to have support at 5450/5426/5405 levels and resistance at 5470/5490/5000 levels for the day.

This post is shared on the moneyvidya blog by Anthony Joseph Rajendran. Please Visit www.investorinfo.in , to see Anthonys’ personal blog/website.

MoneyVidya.com is a stock picking community where you can follow top Indian Investors, Traders and Stock Market Enthusiasts. Visit MoneyVidya.com and join the community today

Nifty Analysis for Week of August 9th

Monday, August 9th, 2010
Nifty has continued its slow shift upwards during the last couple of weeks - but no major fireworks so far.  MACD and Stochastics are showing a bearish divergence on Nifty EOD charts which is being confirmed by falling volume (as shown on the accompanying chart). 
Nifty Divergence
 

To make matters worse -  Friday’s big jobs report in US came out worse than expected (130,000 US jobs lost in last month as against a consensus loss of 70,000 jobs). The only short term positive factor was some buying coming in towards the end of US session-  which meant that the major US indices recovered most of the lost ground in the last two hours of trading and ended the day only 0.20% down.

So, what can we anticipate going forward  this week ? Going by the technical evidence and the global macro backdrop -  I think there is an increased likelihood of a sell-off  happening from the current levels. I have adjusted my end-of-day levels for Nifty -  and the first significant resistance on the daily Nifty charts comes in at 5466 -  which we will consider broken if Nifty manages to close 2 consecutive days above it. The next big resistance (this one is from weekly charts) comes in at 5608 -  which, although looking quite distant -  can be touched in a spike scenario. First significant support in the daily charts comes in at 5366, followed by a much stronger support at 5220.

Nifty Levels

Some of my fellow traders, with whom I exchange ideas regularly -  are anticipating some big moves this week/month -  and I tend to agree with them. There might be heightened volatility in the days to come -  so be careful -  and as usual -  all the best for your trading.

This post is shared on the moneyvidya blog by Ashish. Please visit http://marketsindia.blogspot.com/  to see ashish’s personal blog.

MoneyVidya.com is a stock picking community where you can follow top Indian Investors, Traders and Stock Market Enthusiasts. Visit MoneyVidya.com and join the community today

Understanding Demat and Trading account relationship

Thursday, September 17th, 2009

Understanding Demat and Trading account relationship

Some of the beginners to online stock trading do not understand relationship between Share Trading account and Demat Account . In this short article lets see the relationship between Demat account , Trading Account and your Bank Account . We will also see how many trading or Demat account you can have in total .

Work Flow

Below is a short chart where I have tried to give the flow when you buy a share . click to Enlarge

Demat Account : Account where your Shares are stored in electronic form .

Trading Account : An account which is used to place orders for Buying and Selling of shares .

So Trading account is an interface between your Bank account and your Demat account , when you buy something , Trading account takes money from your Bank Account (Its already taken from your Bank account and saved in Trading account) and buys shares and stores it in your Demat account . When you Sell something , Your trading account takes back the shares from your Demat account and Sells them in Stock Market and get back the money and that goes back to your Bank account (actually you manually transfer it to Bank account from Trading account most of the times .

Question : Does any one know maximum how many demat account can one open ?

Five Good Stocks for Long Term Investor

Wednesday, August 12th, 2009

I am a believer that our environment, surroundings, and our education shape our thought process. Knowingly or unknowingly our thinking will demonstrate what we have been through in past. It is applicable to every living being including us humans and present Indian population. Still there are very few who think and visualize beyond their surroundings. And it is these few who evolve and succeed over long term.

Our present 20s and 30s generation, of which I am part of, is very vibrant, inquisitive, and very progressive and has a desire to succeed in one way or the other. As they say, life is very fast in today’s India! The IT generation is very impatient which reflects the IT domain’s continuous changes in short one year. What is new today is considered to be obsolete in 2 years. Unfortunately, we fail to understand it is not same in investing.  Here are few interesting tidbits: (more…)

This article was written by TIP Guy of TIPBlog.in

Sensex 14k momentum line becomes important now

Tuesday, June 23rd, 2009

Sensex Technical View :

The volatility in the index has definitely left a lot of us confused and that would continue in weeks to come with lot many external triggers namely expiry this week followed by Budget in July 1st week.
Technically some things are more clear now.
  • Index if stays above the momentum line which is roughly around 14k on closing basis there could be a bounce back in the short term which can also be termed a pre-budget rally.
  • Index if stays below 14k on closing basis opens up to the gap area of 13500 -12900 which can also be a post-budget correction or global meltdown.
  • So investors can accordingly position themselves and do keep a decent amount of cash in portfolio as suggested at 15.5k.
  • Traders need to keep trading volumes low as there could be more stop hits with high volatility so good risk management may help.
Stocks to watchout for :
NTPC
The stock has its 200 dema around 185 levels and the stock has heavily from 230 levels. Investors/traders can buy with a stop of 185 on closing basis and a target of 202/212.
Reliance Inds
The chart was earlier posted about how a move below 2145-2160 would turn the tide for the index. Reliance is now arnd 1950. The next important support is around 1850. The 38 % retracement of the entire upmove comes to 1900. So one can expect the stock to manage a pullback from the ones of 1850-1900. Any move below 1850 would take the stock to 1680-1750.
HDFC Bank
The stock has seen no meaning ful correction since October and the trend still remains strong. Currently in the range of 1500-1580. Move below 1490 or 1600 could give a quick 40-80 bucks move to traders on either side.
Regards,

Nooresh