Marshall Wace - social investing, hedge fund style

Marshall Wace has taken the concept of social investing / wisdom of the crowd investing to a whole new level. These guys created a trading system called Trade Optimized Portfolio System (TOPS), which basically ranks analysts from brokerages on the performance of their tips, benchmarks them, and follows the investment recommendations of the best performers. They’re not exactly small fries either - with an estimated $15bn dollars in Assets Under Management (AUM), they’re responsible for some 3-4% of the daily volumes of all equites traded on the London Exchanges, and are ranked amongst the 10 biggest hedge funds in Europe.

As one investment banker put it, the idea behind TOPS was simple (in concept, though probably fairly complex in the algorithms used). It was the equivalent of ’skimming the cream to get the best investment ideas’. The incentive system is clearly in place, as well - if you rank highly according to the the ranking table spat out by the TOPS system, then Marshall Wace will not only take your advice, but transact through your brokering outfit - and this means millions of dollars in commission revenue. In fact, Marshall Wace is rumoured to dole out $250mn in commissions to brokerages every year. Wow.

Because of this incentive system, however, the fund has been subject to scrutiny, with some quarters claiming that the TOPS system could drive salespeople / analysts to breach chinese walls to get a hold of insider information to get an edge and win commissions.

‘So, what?’, I say. I don’t see how this is any different from what happens anyway. Let’s face the facts: chinese walls (mechanisms put in place to prevent price sensitive insider information from leaking from banks’ departments that may be privy to it - e.g. from an Mergers and Acquisitions team of a bank that knows about a particular deal that would move stock prices, leaking to and being used by traders on the trading floor) are thinner than we wish they were / imagine them to be.

In a competitive environment such the US / UK - salespeople are always driven by landing big bonuses based on even bigger deals. So they’re always going to want to get an edge, get that extra bit of insider information that will lead to a better trade for their fickle clientele. Anyway, the various regulators didn’t object at the end and they very much carried on.

What makes this story even more interesting is that the Eureka Fund - which uses the TOPS system - is run by Anthony Clake, and has been doing so for the last two years. He joined the fund after graduating from Oxford. He was the one that designed the software (although the concepts that drove the algorithm must have been a team effort) behind TOPS. When became the fund manager he was all but 25 years old - making him one of the youngest fund managers in London (surely there aren’t any other 25-year-old fund managers? Does my managing my own funds qualify me as a ‘fund manager’?). Apparently this guy trained in the Deutsche Bank analyst training programme before he joined the fund.

Oh I almost forgot the little detail around their performance. Yeah, they’ve got that covered (I’ve only looked at TOPS funds and those that have been around for at least 3 years - long enough to demonstrate a track record. Source: FT):

In fact this strategy is so successful that despite the unraveling global economy in light of the subprime collapse and rising commodity prices, Marshall Wace just raised another EUR 2bn in March this year!

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  • Never mind. Fit that in with "imagine". Asians may be bad innovators, but are shrewd emulators of others' successful strategies.
  • admin
    @Akshay - both TOPS and Eureka were down, but did they underperform the market? Specifically did TOPS underperform? I also think that looking at a 1 month performance doesn't say much, one way or the other in terms of benchmarking performance - which is why I've only looked at those TOPS funds that have a 3 year track record.
  • admin
    @Akshay - thanks will correct typos (Clarke etc.)
    @Karan - was going to write about the Alpha Network (read my mind) but thanks for the tip-off on the Trade Idea monitor...
  • Akshay
    MW is one of the top hedge funds in Europe. Their TOPS funds are a great innovation - infact MW Tops even IPOd in december 2006. And yes, it is designed by Anthone Clake (not Clarke) - an Oxford grad who made Partner at MW at the age of 25. Yes , clearly the youngest ever.

    Also, do you mean low vol or high vol this year?? the latter for sure!! Most hefhe funds have had a turbulent period - just like the rest of the financial services industry...
    Also Gautam - you are correct in pointing out the Eureka does not use the TOPS system. Eureka and MW Tops are the two flagship funds of Marshall Wace...Both funds howvere have had a hard time in 2008..both were down until end of may at least
  • admin
    I'm not sure what you mean by 'delude' others?
  • I would answer yes and no. Yes if we delude others take time in tracking down how someone make the big bucks. But remember the grandma's adage -walls have ears ;)

    No if you think of the smallness of scale and the layers of bureaucracy that could scuttle even the simplest of events like the Ranbaxy open offer! Worth the risk...?
  • Karan
    pls check out "Alpha Network" and "Trade Idea Monitor"... very much focussed on rating the sell-side...
  • admin
    Just wanted to point out that as far as I'm aware, the Eureka Fund is a traditional fund, not driven by TOPS. Moreover, the estimated AUM for MW is not $7bn - the current figure stands closer to $15bn. In terms of a search for novelty and exclusivity - surely its easier to do so in a less developed market, with fewer players seeking alpha, than a more developed market such as the US / UK were every strategy has already been 'done'?
  • Elsewhere in the FT article there are some candid admissions too -

    “Marshall Wace has not been immune to the low volatility in markets that has plagued many hedge funds this year. Wace admits that the flagship Eureka fund has performed poorly this year, rising just 3 per cent, compared to 13.3 per cent last year. Just weeks ago, a senior trader quit after the arbitrage unit that he ran lost more than 20 per cent this year, in spite of a boom in mergers….Wace admits that business has become difficult. “The industry used to be below people’s radar screens and now, due to the performance of managers, it is not,” he said.

    That is not to diminish the enormity of their achievement - $7 billion AUM - Kudos!

    My point is from the angle of sustenance of the strategy in my search for novelty and exclusivity that creates high entry barriers. I see none. . If Europe is tough, Asia could be tougher. With its decentralized nature of markets, it could be harder for Asian brokers and vendors to develop differentiated technologies in each market. The region, with its multiple connectivity challenged exchanges will lag the trailblazers by a wide margin.
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