Fresh Rumours: ICICI bank collapse imminent? Not likely.

Somebody called me early this morning telling me that they had heard fresh rumours that ICICI bank was going to collapse in the wake of the credit crisis. Clearly, a number of people in Hyderabada also heard this rumour, and panicked. According to this TOI story, people were lining up at ATMs to pull their money out. 

On September 17, ICICI bank’s management strongly denied rumours that the management was offloading ICICI shares. Share prices dropped from Rs. 720 on September 8 to Rs. 560 on September 17. They rose again to Rs. 634 on September 22, and are currently trading at Rs. 493, marginally down from yesterday’s close. 

In my opinion, while ICICI may have not insignificant Mark to Market (MTM) losses from its exposure to credit derivatives, there is *no way* that ICICI bank would collapse. It’s India’s AIG, for all practical purposes. As the second largest bank in India, the regulator would never let such a thing happen. Moreover, even if it did face large MTM losses, given the fact that it recently raised $5bn in equity capital - I imagine that this is more than enough to tide it over in uncertain times. 

If you don’t believe these rumours, then ICICI is looking pretty attractive, trading at a PE of 15, and almost a third of its yearly high in January of Rs. 1440.

Disclaimer: This post or any other content advice is not investment advice and should not be construed as such. All views presented here are solely the opinion of the author’s.

Disclosure: I don’t hold any shares of ICICI Bank. 

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  • Neeraj Singh
    I am an ICICI customer and hold 1 bank account and also taken bank loan. The loan was issued @7.25% interest rate with Floating Rate.
    Due to rising inflation, the interest rates kept on moving upwards and peaked up to 13%. They are presently charging 12.75%.
    ICICI bank has been very quick to increase the rates. However, when inflation now falling substantially and RBI cutting interest rates, ICICI is not willing to reduce the floating rate of interest. And to my utmost surprise now they are asking for 1.75% processing fee to reduce the interest rate to 9.75%.

    Unable to bear the pain, I am forced to think to opting out from ICICI and switch the loan to some other public sector bank, that too at any cost.
    I would make all out efforts to discourage all my acquaintances, which is undoubtedly very large, to avoid dealing with ICICI bank for loans.

    Neeraj Singh
  • K V K
    Sree is 100 % correct. Only those icici customers who had suffered from icici's goons knows it.
  • K V K
    The current banking turmoil has been especially hard on western female bankers who had built stylish little careers and lifestyles wafting cluelessly amongst less pretty male counterparts.

    ..but alas, style and intelligent sounding drivel only works in bull markets when quite a few bankers are diagnosed with abnormally large brain cells that explains their enhanced financial acumen.. and such visions somehow evaporate at the end of bull markets.

    Lovelies such as Erin Callan, Zoe Cruz, Sallie Krawchek.. are sorely missed for their exceptional skills, strategic vision and grasp of this faltering sector.. but even more for objective reasons.

    Let us be clear.. these stylish things are confined to the banking world and their skirts have graced no trading seats except as talented "managers" of trading teams and stunning, exciting meetings they presided over. It was all very very stimulating.

    Luddic Research reports an interesting analysis of the factors that make women get raises (and in turn makes them rise) in Wall Street's "high" finance and present a convincing argument how Sarah Palin would undoubtedly have risen far above three and possibly higher because of her (GodBlessHer) disconnect from reality and simple questions..

    ..as also her "doggone it" style would make it virtually impossible to fire or demote her.. since his decisions were mostly God's will.. and there is a litter of five(and a sixth derivatve) to feed..

    But she has the rallyTheTroops talents to boldly make Grand asinine decisions and megalo visions that would put many a banker to shame.

    Coming back to our local banking femmes, who though severely looks challenged have nevertheless dutifully tried to grace the financial pages with their vision and grasp of the banking /financial exploits and achievements.

    Few months back Luddic Research had identified ICICI bank as a worthy torchbearer of the Great Indian DRIP Story that would eclipse the BRIC folly in short order .

    There was this truly gifted leader KV Kamath of many talents and evergreen matinee idol looks who by some strange twist ended up running a bank instead of singing/ dancing around trees in romantic Bollywood musicals.

    As expected, not one to let dull banking offices dim his magnetic attractiveness, he quickly embarked upon a mission to surround himself by female managers of all hues and their vision to think beyond their makeup and saris. It greatly helped that the bevy of financial birds surrounding his jet black hair added zest to all official gatherings, conferences and Industry meets that this visionaries from ICICI came to spend most of their waking hours gracing.. sure beat dull number crunching back in the cubicle.

    So the growth trajectory of ICICI was clearly dominated by market share/growth/ think Big kind of excitement that just saw opportunity in any thing that walked or had a pulse .The game was to grow so fast and furiously that the nobody could ever calculate how much bad loans, capitalized expenses , NPAs etc. were buried under the ever piling books.
    .. the rate of growth had to ensure nobody within the bank(much less a regulator or analyst) would ever be able to figure out the real profit (using the term very loosely) since inception.

    This bank quickly caught the fancy of young and old, big and small, native and foreign.. wow.. what a growth trajectory and ..wow, what a visionary (and youthful) management team..The Indian growth story soon became synonymous with this bank and its conspiciously feminine Generals who rushed in where male bankers feared to lend.

    The assortment of Chanda Kocchars, Kalpana Morparias, Renuka Ramanathans and such became household legends in this country for their far reaching insights and ability to shovel cash out into the countryside..

    The corporate strategy meetings were fairly brief and everyone was totally on the same page:
    .. mostly a session of complementing the management on their looks , jewelry and dresses(where did you get that.. very pretty!!) was towards the end punctuated with the agenda..
    ..OK that's decided now 12,000 new ATMs this year, 4500 new branches this year..finance KingFisher airlines to go global (airlines are the best users of our cash, we loooove Vijay Mallya .. he's dashing and dashes well..plus we couldn't find a bigger lemon than this airlines) .. lend to every car, house, salaried, two wheeler, Freddie, Fannie, Lehman , Builder, Construction company, SME this country has or if the growth targets falling short .. create these borrowers from the country side.. India is woefully under borrowed.

    .. it got to a point that if anyone in the world (yes word got out) wanted to borrow and had difficulty answering some fairly simple questions .. he knew some ladies in India who had growth plans to match and cash to burn.. all he needed to do was answer some fairly simple questions at Sarah Palin's altitude and walk out with the cash.

    Small wonder the bank seems to be involved in "offshore subsidiaries" who seem to have a little subPrime problem..

    .. and the bank seem to be holding realEstate assets and such loans (at cost ofcourse) that reach into the furthest corners of the India.

    ..and the bank seems to have millions of lovely grass roots type of two wheeler and small loans which will likely pass on to next generation of original borrowers(and collection agents) before fully repayment.

    .. and of course the housing loans book of ICICI bank across the country to strictly deserving applicants has proudly been hailed as the single biggest reason for unlocking the value in the Indian Real Estate sector which had for previous 50 years remained locked and hidden .

    But sadly , the current turmoil has not gone down well in the envisaged growth plans of the Bank and unless quickly rectified by large Govt. bailouts, threatens to reveal certain accounting gymnastics at ICICI that could quickly disturb the composure and the hairStyle of KV Kamath.. and the confident noises Ms.Chanda Kocchar has been making to scotch any rumours.

    For starters Ms.Kalpana Morparia has hopped across to JP Morgan (good timing surely!) and quickly announced grandiose ICICI style plans for expansion there.. much as in fashion of clueless American firms trying to monetise the enigmatic growth story of India that every one is sure of and can sense but nobody can actually pin it down. (When was the last time a white man actually took some profit out of an "emerging markets" ?.. tho we are not complaining ;)

    So as all the other DRIP pillars have wilted these past months .. ICICI in that ingrained, go-getting manner has gone for the floodgates where others merely dripped.

    What Kamath missed in his zest for youthful self-image and quest for visionary sounding legacy, was that you just cannot rustle up girls from the countryside and perch them in nice offices in Mumbai to do anything more useful than answering the phone or adding color to offsites.. no matter how debonair your looks or how dark your hair.

    As per Luddic Research , the true measure of robust health and vitality in any company ( especially Banking) is inversely proportional to the percentage of top management coloring their hair artificially to bolster market share through misdirected Libido..

    ..just don't work.

    Lastly, there is a rumor gaining ground here that ICICI bank is really an American Bank.
  • ATUL KAUL
    ICICI bank is possibly the worst bank in Indis. In its greed to grow it has not only compromized its values and business models but made the life of its customers like me HELL. I am a "preferred" customer with NRI status and I just cannot mention in printable language how this bank has raped my sanity. Noone cares for you. Noone replies your emails. I also have a IDIRECT drading account which is also a source of misery. This bank will indeed one day be acquired or lose face as it has lost trust with the indian diaspora.
  • admin
    Sree - I'm really not sure on what basis you've made the assertion that their 'brains are like criminals'. What I do know is that its a fairly nonsensical statement.
  • sree
    ICICI bank will collapse within in a month. Their managements' brains are like criminals
  • ICICI Bank Service Team
    September 30, 2008

    Dear Sir/ Madam,

    We greatly value your relationship with us. In the context of the developments in the international financial markets, we thought it pertinent to bring to you our perspective of the prevailing situation.

    We would like to bring to your attention that the Indian banking system is well regulated and significantly insulated from global developments. This is because it is mandatory for all Indian Scheduled Commercial Banks to retain 34% of the deposit base in the form of Government Securities (SLR) and cash with RBI (CRR). Besides, sound policies of RBI have ensured prudent credit practices in the Indian Banking system.

    ICICI Bank is already compliant with the BASLE II requirement in respect of risk management practices and capital adequacy. At 13.4%, ICICI Bank has one of the highest capital adequacy ratios in the Indian banking industry. Last year, ICICI Bank raised Rs. 20,000 crores (US $ 5 billion) of equity capital, which almost doubled our equity capital base. We have a net worth of over Rs. 47,000 crores (US$ 10 billion), again one of the highest in the banking industry in India We have consolidated total assets of over Rs. 4,84,000 crores (over US $ 105 billion), which is diversified across a wide range of asset classes across retail, wholesale and rural banking.

    ICICI Bank is amongst the most profitable banks in India. In FY 08, ICICI Bank made a profit of Rs. 4,158 crores (US$ 900 million).

    ICICI Bank has the highest credit ratings in the Indian financial sector. We have AAA ratings for our instruments, such as senior bonds, subordinated bonds, and deposits. We have the highest foreign currency bond ratings assigned to any Indian bank from Moodys and S&P.

    We continue to invest in growth, indicating our confidence in the opportunities in the Indian market. In 07-08, ICICI Bank added 650 new branches, taking the total strength to over 1400 branches.

    We thank you for reposing trust in us over the years. We look forward to setting new benchmarks in service levels in India and to create a bank that you will continue to be proud of.

    As a testimony to the above, please find below the clarification given by Reserve Bank of India.

    Date : 30 Sep 2008
    RBI Statement on ICICI Bank’s Financial Position
    There are reports in some sections of the media that based on rumours regarding the financial strength of ICICI Bank, depositors are withdrawing cash at its ATMs and branches in some locations.

    It is clarified that the ICICI Bank has sufficient liquidity, including in its current account with the Reserve Bank of India, to meet the requirements of its depositors. The Reserve Bank of India is monitoring the developments and has arranged to provide adequate cash to ICICI Bank to meet the demands of its customers at its branches/ ATMs.

    The ICICI Bank and its subsidiary banks abroad are well capitalised.

    Alpana Killawala
    Chief General Manager

    Press Release : 2008-2009/412

    Sincerely,

    Nazia Sayeed
    Office of Head Service Quality
    ICICI Bank Ltd.
  • Ram
    Don't worry ...Nothing will happen to ICICI Bank.
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