Fresh Rumours: ICICI bank collapse imminent? Not likely.
Somebody called me early this morning telling me that they had heard fresh rumours that ICICI bank was going to collapse in the wake of the credit crisis. Clearly, a number of people in Hyderabada also heard this rumour, and panicked. According to this TOI story, people were lining up at ATMs to pull their money out.
On September 17, ICICI bank’s management strongly denied rumours that the management was offloading ICICI shares. Share prices dropped from Rs. 720 on September 8 to Rs. 560 on September 17. They rose again to Rs. 634 on September 22, and are currently trading at Rs. 493, marginally down from yesterday’s close.
In my opinion, while ICICI may have not insignificant Mark to Market (MTM) losses from its exposure to credit derivatives, there is *no way* that ICICI bank would collapse. It’s India’s AIG, for all practical purposes. As the second largest bank in India, the regulator would never let such a thing happen. Moreover, even if it did face large MTM losses, given the fact that it recently raised $5bn in equity capital - I imagine that this is more than enough to tide it over in uncertain times.
If you don’t believe these rumours, then ICICI is looking pretty attractive, trading at a PE of 15, and almost a third of its yearly high in January of Rs. 1440.
Disclaimer: This post or any other content advice is not investment advice and should not be construed as such. All views presented here are solely the opinion of the author’s.
Disclosure: I don’t hold any shares of ICICI Bank.
Tags: Financial Services, Foreign Operations, ICICI, Investing, Investments, Stock Market, Subprime











Loading...