Suzlon - Hawa Ka Jhoka?

Wondering about the title? Don’t confuse it with Sameer (Salman Khan from Hum Dil De Chuke Sanam) who is referred to as Hawa ka Jhoka in a scene where he remained static the whole night in one position and releases the gas early morning when Aishwarya Rai ends the game.

Well this is not about any movie scene or hawa ka jhoka. It’s about Suzlon, a company which is involved in manufacturing wind turbines. Well hawa (wind) does come into the picture; just that here it’s not a jhoka but an entire typhoon of green energy. And the company is about a lot more than just wind turbines! It aims to be a company that serves society with sustainable wind-power on a commercial scale. It was started in 1995 with just 20 people, and now it’s a leading wind power company with –

  • Over 14,000 people in 21 countries
  • Operations across the Americas, Asia, Australia and The Netherlands
  • Fully integrated supply chain across three continents
  • Sophisticated R&D capabilities in Denmark, Germany, India and The Netherlands
  • Market leader in Asia and 5th largest wind turbine manufacturer in the world

The short span of 14 years in which the company grew at a stupendous rate is incredible. Let’s look at its fundamentals and financials. Like the industry it operates into (sustainable development – creating awareness about Global Climate Change), Suzlon has made sure that it remains green. Well I classify a company as green when it’s past growth rates (YoY as well as aggregate) having all been greater than 12%.


Suzlon - Graphical Plots

Suzlon - Graphical Plots

ROE and ROIC

If you study the company further, you’ll observe that not only is the company fully green, but it also has a high ROE (Return on Equity) average of 36.69 for the past 6 years. ROE does not include the debt factor. Don’t worry; its ROIC (Return on Investment Capital) is equally good. It has a 6 year average of 24.97. These two figures are very important to look at because they give a fair picture of how the management has been using its funds.

If you’re looking for dividends, then Suzlon is not your cup of tea (Very little and erratic). But my dear friends please notice one more thing. If a company does not return us, the investors, our hard earned money, it better use it efficiently and grow. And what better example do you need? Suzlon has proved it continuously over the past 14 years…

Debt to Net Profit

It’s debt to net profit has always been in control. Currently it’s at 2.17. This ratio serves as a metric, which tells us the time a company will take to repay its entire debt if it continues to grow its profits at the rate at which it has been growing till now. Well if this ratio is less than or equal to 3, it’s considered safe and within limits. In fact, this is the maximum Suzlon has ever let this ratio reach. Otherwise it’s always less than or equal to 1.

Going Ahead

I hope that Suzlon continues to give out not hawa ka jhoka’s but an entire hawa ka typhoon! In short and simple words, I expect the company to continue to grow and spread the greenery all around the world. I can associate myself even better with the company because it’s contributing to controlling global warming – an issue which remains largely ignored in spite the fast spreading awareness. My hopes are based on the splendid performance of the company in the past, which trounced the critics and non-believers. Thanks Mr. Tulsi R. Tanti for turning Suzlon into a gem.

This article was written by Charu Gupta. She also writes at her own blog at Charu’s Blog


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  • Hey,

    Thanks a lot for the informative post. I hope it answers the worries of various investors. Since the time i wrote this blog i have only been receiving negative news. One of the concerns which came across is the bad management. Some of my friends know some insiders in the company and they feel that the Management has been repeatedly taking decisions not in favor of the company. Please share your views on the management other than Mr Tulsi R Tanti.

    Also you said that the share is trading at 40...well its trading at 80 right now and was in the range of 40's only during March (that too for a very short while!).

    Looking forward to gain more insights.

    Regards,
    Charu
  • A climate conservationist
    Dated 21th August 2009

    The demand for wind energy is INFINITE !!!
    Very soon there is going to be some sort of a global legislation calling for a ban on thermal coal based and also gas based power plants. Thereby implying that a substantial capatalization currently deployed in companies like NTPC, Reliance Power, TATA Power, Adani power etc will shift to wind energies like Suzlon and Indowind Energy. Coal based power generation plants are adding to carbon emissions, adding to ash pollution and also depleting the already scarce water recourses.

    Have you ever wondered why Adani Power got a thums down on ITS listing today and that Reliance Power has gone substantially below its issue price ... ANSWER: Because smart money is slowly moving out of thermal based power generation plants. The smart investors are intelligent enough to understand that the coal based power plants will need a minimum of 3 to 4 years to constructed and commissioned and by that time there would already be enough global threatening voices calling for a total shut and permanent dismantling down of such plants. In the last one year China has shut down more than 330 thermal coal based power generation plants and before 2020 USA has vowed to have at least 20% of its electricity from wind energy.

    As of now in terms even Azim Premji of Wipro is talking of diversifying only into Renewable Energy as per his interview in CNBC TV18 a week back ... Why ? Because he is an intelligent man and that he knows Wind Energy is the absolute future.

    After a very vast review of literature I come to the conclusion that today 20 August 2009, irrespective of its Rs 13000 crore debt the Rs 2 paid up share of Suzlon needs to be valued at a price of over Rs 500. So why is Suzlon moving near price of Rs 40 per share ... because the people are fools ... and they do not understand that WIND ENERGY is the priority of the world today.

    I am a scientist and as per my mathematical analysis including complex algorithms (equations) for every 1 mm rise in the height of sea water there is going to be an associated one foot rise in the future high tides. About a 20 days back, that is in the month July 2009 people had gathered in a picnic mood at India Gate Mumbai to witness the highest tide of the century the said tide being 4.25 meters high, and at that time the sea water was only 2.5 inch below the parapet of india gate. By next year July with the polar ice melting fast due to global warming the sea water would rise by at least 3 mm, thereby implying that during the high tide in July 2010 the lobby of Taj Mahal and Oberoi Hotel in Mumbai would be at least 3 feet under water intermittently for 7 to 8 hours. Next year or the year next when cities like Mumbai and New York start to submerge is water at least during the high tide then CNBC TV 18 would invariably be devoting 4.5 hours out of the 5 hours to only companies involved in Renewale Energy like Suzlon and Indowind energy. A few days back I heard on CNBC TV18 the CEO of Mozer Baer saying that they are making active steps to enter Renewable energy.

    CONCLUSION: Sell all your shares related to thermal power such as NTPC, Reliance power, Adani Power, TATA Power, GVK and invest the proceeds as follows:
    80% in Suzlon
    20% in Indowind energy

    ... Why? The good will value of the technical know how in wind energy which has been acquired by Suzlon and Indowind Energy is much more than the total existing capitalization of these companies. Suzlon is down to Rs 40 from Rs 1300 only for its blade cracking problem, but I thing that this is an asset and not a problem to Suzlon because they have learnt the hard way and obviously they shall not commit this mistake again. Further it takes 12 large trucks to transport each wind mill like the one made by Suzlon and in such a scenario other companies like Vesta and GE can never take Suzlons market share in Asia.

    Also within one year from now that is by Aug 2010 you will start hearing the ominous rumblings from global bodies such as the UNO and the developed countries that all countries need to dismantle their thermal coal or gas based power plants, come what may be the consequences. In such a scenario would you like to keep invested in companies like NTPC, Reliance power, Adani Power, TATA Power. Well I would rather take my money out of these companies right today and I would rather start going short on these companies each time the share value of any of such company goes up. However I shall so arrange that am able to maintain my short position for at least 3 years.

    One more thing, time will show that Tulsi Tanti of Suzlon will never sell his holding in Hansen given the choice ... that is why he is looking towards divesting in SeForge.

    ULTIMATE CONCLUSION: If Suzlon is able to divest in SeForge and show a Q2 net profit of even Rs 50 crore (after accounting the servicing of the rest of the existing debt) its share value will cross Rs 500. And I firmly believe that in Q2 2009 (just wait till Sep 2009 when the Q2 results are announced) you shall see a Q2 net profit of about 150 crore.
  • No doubt about the company's performance in the past...This company will keep growing but i don't see very steep rise in revenues comin uo anytime soon. I guess this sector will still take some time before it takes off well.
  • Dear Supria,

    I agree that the technology is not yet fully developed. But the company performed so well in the past in spite that. I'm sure they are working on it. Their recent acquisition of REpower AG is a move in this direction. Moreover I believe, there is a huge growth potential in this industry due to its nascent nature.

    Suzlon has to tap it well before others. Given it's size and current position, it seems well geared to do everything that is required to stay ahead and continue to grow. the road ahead is not easy, so the risk associated is higher relative to a more developed industry and so are the expected returns. For a further analysis of the recent acquisition, read an extention of the post: Suzlon – The Typhoon of Green Energy @ http://gcharu.blogspot.com/

    Regards,
    Charu gupta
  • Dear Christy,

    Thanks for the comment. I know the road ahead for Suzlon is not going to be easy. They need to work upon the technology that they are using. Hopefully the recent acquisition of REpower AG, will be of some help. But I have faith in them. I'm sure they will work out something.

    Regards,
    Charu
  • Supria_Sony
    Dear Charu,
    I completely agree with you that Suzlon Energy is a fantastic company. Its financial record and business model are wonderful. We should invest in this type of company at right price. But don't you think that it depends on Hawa ka jhoka (Intensity of wind flow) or wind's mood. So far, the technology is also not very developed for generating wind energy. Therefore, it contains significant risk also. Could you focus on risk factor of this company also?

    Thank you
  • Suzlon is a value buy. They still have some engineering problem in the design of their new blades. If they solve it 100%, then this scrip would move past Rs.1000 in 5 years.
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