Thanks a lot for the informative post. I hope it answers the worries of various investors. Since the time i wrote this blog i have only been receiving negative news. One of the concerns which came across is the bad management. Some of my friends know some insiders in the company and they feel that the Management has been repeatedly taking decisions not in favor of the company. Please share your views on the management other than Mr Tulsi R Tanti.

Also you said that the share is trading at 40…well its trading at 80 right now and was in the range of 40's only during March (that too for a very short while!).

Looking forward to gain more insights.

Regards,
Charu

The demand for wind energy is INFINITE !!!
Very soon there is going to be some sort of a global legislation calling for a ban on thermal coal based and also gas based power plants. Thereby implying that a substantial capatalization currently deployed in companies like NTPC, Reliance Power, TATA Power, Adani power etc will shift to wind energies like Suzlon and Indowind Energy. Coal based power generation plants are adding to carbon emissions, adding to ash pollution and also depleting the already scarce water recourses.

Have you ever wondered why Adani Power got a thums down on ITS listing today and that Reliance Power has gone substantially below its issue price … ANSWER: Because smart money is slowly moving out of thermal based power generation plants. The smart investors are intelligent enough to understand that the coal based power plants will need a minimum of 3 to 4 years to constructed and commissioned and by that time there would already be enough global threatening voices calling for a total shut and permanent dismantling down of such plants. In the last one year China has shut down more than 330 thermal coal based power generation plants and before 2020 USA has vowed to have at least 20% of its electricity from wind energy.

As of now in terms even Azim Premji of Wipro is talking of diversifying only into Renewable Energy as per his interview in CNBC TV18 a week back … Why ? Because he is an intelligent man and that he knows Wind Energy is the absolute future.

After a very vast review of literature I come to the conclusion that today 20 August 2009, irrespective of its Rs 13000 crore debt the Rs 2 paid up share of Suzlon needs to be valued at a price of over Rs 500. So why is Suzlon moving near price of Rs 40 per share … because the people are fools … and they do not understand that WIND ENERGY is the priority of the world today.

I am a scientist and as per my mathematical analysis including complex algorithms (equations) for every 1 mm rise in the height of sea water there is going to be an associated one foot rise in the future high tides. About a 20 days back, that is in the month July 2009 people had gathered in a picnic mood at India Gate Mumbai to witness the highest tide of the century the said tide being 4.25 meters high, and at that time the sea water was only 2.5 inch below the parapet of india gate. By next year July with the polar ice melting fast due to global warming the sea water would rise by at least 3 mm, thereby implying that during the high tide in July 2010 the lobby of Taj Mahal and Oberoi Hotel in Mumbai would be at least 3 feet under water intermittently for 7 to 8 hours. Next year or the year next when cities like Mumbai and New York start to submerge is water at least during the high tide then CNBC TV 18 would invariably be devoting 4.5 hours out of the 5 hours to only companies involved in Renewale Energy like Suzlon and Indowind energy. A few days back I heard on CNBC TV18 the CEO of Mozer Baer saying that they are making active steps to enter Renewable energy.

CONCLUSION: Sell all your shares related to thermal power such as NTPC, Reliance power, Adani Power, TATA Power, GVK and invest the proceeds as follows:
80% in Suzlon
20% in Indowind energy

… Why? The good will value of the technical know how in wind energy which has been acquired by Suzlon and Indowind Energy is much more than the total existing capitalization of these companies. Suzlon is down to Rs 40 from Rs 1300 only for its blade cracking problem, but I thing that this is an asset and not a problem to Suzlon because they have learnt the hard way and obviously they shall not commit this mistake again. Further it takes 12 large trucks to transport each wind mill like the one made by Suzlon and in such a scenario other companies like Vesta and GE can never take Suzlons market share in Asia.

Also within one year from now that is by Aug 2010 you will start hearing the ominous rumblings from global bodies such as the UNO and the developed countries that all countries need to dismantle their thermal coal or gas based power plants, come what may be the consequences. In such a scenario would you like to keep invested in companies like NTPC, Reliance power, Adani Power, TATA Power. Well I would rather take my money out of these companies right today and I would rather start going short on these companies each time the share value of any of such company goes up. However I shall so arrange that am able to maintain my short position for at least 3 years.

One more thing, time will show that Tulsi Tanti of Suzlon will never sell his holding in Hansen given the choice … that is why he is looking towards divesting in SeForge.

ULTIMATE CONCLUSION: If Suzlon is able to divest in SeForge and show a Q2 net profit of even Rs 50 crore (after accounting the servicing of the rest of the existing debt) its share value will cross Rs 500. And I firmly believe that in Q2 2009 (just wait till Sep 2009 when the Q2 results are announced) you shall see a Q2 net profit of about 150 crore.

I agree that the technology is not yet fully developed. But the company performed so well in the past in spite that. I'm sure they are working on it. Their recent acquisition of REpower AG is a move in this direction. Moreover I believe, there is a huge growth potential in this industry due to its nascent nature.

Suzlon has to tap it well before others. Given it's size and current position, it seems well geared to do everything that is required to stay ahead and continue to grow. the road ahead is not easy, so the risk associated is higher relative to a more developed industry and so are the expected returns. For a further analysis of the recent acquisition, read an extention of the post: Suzlon – The Typhoon of Green Energy @ http://gcharu.blogspot.com/

Regards,
Charu gupta

Thanks for the comment. I know the road ahead for Suzlon is not going to be easy. They need to work upon the technology that they are using. Hopefully the recent acquisition of REpower AG, will be of some help. But I have faith in them. I'm sure they will work out something.

Regards,
Charu